The commercial vehicle automotive thermal system market is likely to grow from USD 16.62 billion in 2023 to over USD 25.40 billion by 2033. The market is expected to register a CAGR of 4.33% from 2023 to 2033.
By using technology, the automotive temperature control system in a commercial vehicle regulates temperature to keep all components in their optimal temperature ranges. This technology relies on thermodynamics and heat transfer principles. Several factors are expected to fuel the growth of the industry, including vehicle scrappage programs, aggressive infrastructure development, and rural development. In addition, the industry may be regulated to meet stringent regulatory standards for vehicle lengths and weights. Growth is also expected to be driven by the resumption of mining activities in some parts of the world, which has sparked the demand for tippers.
Factors Impacting the Commercial Vehicle Automotive Thermal System Market:
| Attributes | Details |
|---|---|
| Commercial Vehicle Automotive Thermal System Market Value (2023) | USD 16.62 billion |
| Commercial Vehicle Automotive Thermal System Market Expected Value (2033) | USD 25.40 billion |
| Commercial Vehicle Automotive Thermal System Market Projected CAGR (2023 to 2033) | 4.33% |
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As per FMI, the commercial vehicle automotive thermal system market may reach USD 25.40 billion by 2033. In the first half of 2022, the global market increased at a CAGR of 4.52%, which is a market share of USD 15.27 billion. Although not evenly distributed throughout all regions, this growth is stronger in developing markets, where it is predicted to reach USD 16.62 billion by 2023 with a CAGR of 4.33%.
| Historical CAGR | 16.45% |
|---|---|
| Historical Market Value (2022) | USD 16.28 billion |
| Forecast CAGR | 4.33% |
In the wake of the pandemic, commercial vehicle automotive thermal systems have experienced lower demand than anticipated across all regions compared to pre-pandemic levels. According to FMI analysis, the global commercial vehicle automotive thermal systems market is expected to decline by 4.74% between 2020 and 2021.
Short Term (2023 to 2026): Many commercial vehicle companies are improving their operational efficiency by streamlining their production processes and reducing costs. Moreover, many companies are setting goals to enhance their after-sales services, including offering more training and support to customers.
Medium Term (2026 to 2029): Many companies in the commercial vehicle market aim to diversify their product portfolio by introducing new models and expanding into new markets. This strategy helps them to tap into new revenue streams and reduce their dependence on any one particular product or market. They may also plump for new technologies, such as autonomous driving and connected vehicle systems, to stay ahead of the competition and meet the evolving needs of their customers.
Long Term (2029 to 2033): Sustainability is becoming increasingly important for companies in the commercial vehicle automotive thermal system market. As such, many companies aim to reduce their environmental impact, including reducing emissions, improving fuel efficiency, and developing more sustainable production processes.
Introducing Smart Thermal Management Solutions for Commercial Vehicles
Several companies are developing and upgrading their thermal systems for commercial and electric vehicles. For instance, Bosch Thermo Technology is introducing its Cooling on Demand system, which uses sensors to monitor the temperature of a commercial vehicle's battery and adjust the cooling system accordingly. On the other hand, Volvo is introducing an electric truck with an integrated cooling system, which optimizes the balance between the thermal load and the battery range. Mahindra Electric, for example, launched an electric vehicle thermal system in May 2020. The company plans to use liquid-cooled thermal systems to cut vehicle costs.
In March 2019, Delta, a global supplier of power and thermal systems, introduced smart green energy solutions at the Middle East Electricity (MEE 2019) event as a global supplier of power and thermal systems. This includes complete HVAC solutions, inverters, and lighting solutions. Commercial vehicle manufacturers are driving the growth of the automotive market by implementing the latest technology and development.
Stringent Emission Regulations Increase Product Demand
By adhering to emission standards, thermal systems can reduce CO2 emissions. Aside from improving vehicle efficiency, it also repurposes the vehicle's residual heat and optimizes the heating and cooling systems.
Various thermal systems have been installed to reduce CO2 emissions in luxury vehicles, including engine thermal mass reduction, thermal electric exhaust heat recovery systems, liquid-cooled exhaust/EGR, and dynamic engine thermal control. To bring these technologies to the commercial vehicle segment, OEMs like Mahle and Continental are investing in R&D activities.
With the expansion of vehicles sold worldwide, it is becoming challenging to control GHG emissions from commercial vehicles. To address this issue, both the European Commission (EC) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (United States EPA) have implemented fuel economy standards.
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New technologies have been introduced as OEMs strive to meet stringent fuel efficiency and emissions targets. Moreover, increasing demands for truck comfort features necessitate focusing on the powertrain, drivetrain, and cabin thermal systems. As a result, commercial vehicle automotive thermal systems can be assessed for their performance by comparing their costs to the amount of CO2 they reduce.
Some leading truck manufacturers have already accepted and introduced technologies with maximum CO2 reductions, including Paccar, Daimler, Bharat Benz, and Tata Motors. Their premium models are equipped with technologies such as thermal mass reduction, variable engine oil pumps, liquid-cooled exhausts/EGRs, and polymer material heat exchangers.
The high cost of commercial automotive thermal systems might limit the global market growth of thermal systems for automotive vehicles. Although more than 60 thermal system technologies are available, only a few are currently being used based on their cost-benefit ratio.
In terms of applications, the market can be divided into front and rear AC, engines and transmissions, seats, batteries, waste heat recovery, power electronics, and motors.
Between 2023 and 2033, the battery segment is expected to register a CAGR of 5.74%. Batteries operate entirely in a temperature range between 20°C and 40°C. Battery thermal systems ensure battery temperature, increasing driving range and battery life, which is anticipated to drive segment growth.
For instance, Tesla's Model 3 has a battery thermal management system that ensures that the battery temperature stays between 20°C and 40°C. This is even while the battery is charging at a high rate.
A significant share of the global commercial vehicle automotive thermal system market is dominated by the front and rear AC segments. This growth is attributed to the penetration of air conditioning systems regardless of the fuel type or class of vehicle.
There is also an exhaust gas recirculation system in the engine and transmission segment that aids in the combustion of fuel by providing heated exhaust air. Some luxury brands also offer heated steering for comfort in low temperatures. The seat segment is expected to show substantial growth during the forecast period due to the heated and ventilated seat feature currently offered in many vehicles.
The market is categorized by vehicle type-light commercial, heavy commercial, and medium commercial.
Light commercial vehicles (LCVs) accounted for over 75% of the commercial vehicle market in 2023, accounting for the largest revenue share. The LCV segment consists of smaller trucks and goods carrier buses that are mainly utilized for shorter distances and lighter loads than other segments.
LCV vehicles are considered a cost-effective option for passengers and delivering goods. The volumes of these segments are higher than those of medium and heavy commercial vehicles because they are both ICE-propelled and electrically propelled. It requires a thermal system for the transmission system in the power train and battery systems for the battery systems.
During the forecast period, heavy commercial vehicles (HCVs) are expected to experience the fastest growth. In addition to powerful radiators and air conditioning systems, these trucks have powerful thermal systems. As mining and construction activities increase, the HCV segment is expected to grow at a significantly higher rate. Medium commercial vehicles (MCVs) are also expected to grow significantly.
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By 2023, the United States may lead the share of the North American market with 58% of the market. Through multiple transportation modes, including rail, air, and express delivery services, maritime transportation, and truck transportation, the United States has a highly unified supply chain network that connects manufacturers and consumers efficiently.
Several factors are expected to contribute to the growth of the regional market, including accessible financing options, regional governments' focus on in-house automotive production, and aggressive investments in infrastructure.
Like any other market, the demand for commercial vehicle automotive thermal system in Germany depends on several factors, such as economic growth, infrastructure development, and consumer preferences.
Germany is known for its well-developed infrastructure, road networks, ports, and airports. The expansion and improvement of this infrastructure are expected to drive demand for commercial vehicles in Germany.
Government policies and regulations, such as emissions standards and incentives for electric vehicles, can also impact the demand for the market. For example, the share of light commercial vehicles and trucks in the charging energy demand is expected to rise from 28% in 2020 to 42% in 2030. In addition, the shift towards eCommerce and online shopping has also increased the demand for delivery vehicles, particularly light commercial vehicles. This trend is expected to continue as more consumers shift to online shopping, driving demand for the market in Germany.
China is a towering market for commercial vehicles, with sales of commercial vehicles in the country accounting for a significant portion of the global market. In recent years, sales of commercial vehicles in China have grown significantly, driven by strong economic growth and increasing demand for delivery vehicles.
External factors such as economic conditions and trade policy have also impacted the market. Despite these challenges, sales of commercial vehicles in China are expected to remain strong in the coming years. The electric car market in China has grown swiftly since 2015. This was due to electric cars' share of the overall market jumping from 7.2% in January to around 20% in December. This suggests that China is on track to meet its 20% market share target for electric cars by 2025. In recent years, sales of commercial vehicle automotive thermal systems in China have been driven by several factors, including:
Economic Growth: China's rapidly growing economy has led to an increase in demand for commercial vehicles as businesses expand and require more vehicles to transport goods.
Infrastructure Development: The expansion and improvement of China's road networks, ports, and airports are expected to drive demand for commercial vehicles in the country. For instance, China has been expanding its high-speed rail network, which is expected to increase the demand for commercial vehicles such as freight trucks.
Government Policies: Government policies and regulations, such as incentives for electric vehicles and restrictions on older and more polluting vehicles, can also impact the sales of commercial vehicles in China.
Many startups in the commercial vehicle automotive thermal system market are working on innovative solutions to meet the evolving needs of the industry. These startups are largely driven by the increasing demand for safer and more efficient transportation, as well as the need for enhanced environmental sustainability.
They are creating new technologies such as advanced driver-assistance systems, electric vehicles, and autonomous driving systems that aim to improve safety and efficiency. These startups are working to bring cutting-edge technologies and solutions to the commercial vehicle market, helping to shape the future of the industry.
Some start-ups include:
Proterra: Proterra is a California-based company that designs and manufactures electric transit buses for cities and transit agencies. The company has raised over USD 500 million in funding and has deployed over 500 electric buses across North America.
Chanje: Chanje is a California-based company that is developing electric delivery vans for commercial fleet customers. The company has raised over USD 100 million in funding and has partnerships with several leading fleet management companies.
TuSimple: TuSimple is a Chinese auto-driving trucking company that is working to develop autonomous driving technology for commercial vehicles. The company has partnerships with several eminent commercial vehicle manufacturers and has completed over one million miles of autonomous driving tests.
Embark: Embark is a California-based startup that is developing autonomous trucking technology. The company has partnerships with numerous commercial vehicle manufacturers and has completed over a million miles of autonomous driving tests.
Rivian: Rivian is an electric vehicle company that is developing electric pickup trucks and SUVs for the consumer market. The company has raised over USD 8 billion in funding and has partnerships with notable companies, including Amazon and Ford.
Manufacturers are required to follow emission standards regulated by international governing bodies, although these standards vary according to emission regulations in different regions and countries. Commercial vehicle automotive thermal system manufacturers, especially in developing countries, may benefit from the standardization of thermal system emissions and manufacturing-related norms. It may create a robust and uniform manufacturing environment.
It is expected that firms including Tata Motors, Volkswagen AG, Ashok Leyland, AB Volvo, and General Motors may dominate the global market in 2023. As part of their efforts to enhance their respective product offerings in the market, these vendors put a lot of emphasis on providing advanced products based on advanced technologies.
To strengthen their position in the market, the companies are also engaged in strategic initiatives, including regional expansions, mergers, partnerships, and collaborations.
August 2022: Mahindra and Mahindra introduced the New Jeeto Plus CNG, CharSau, which offers the best range, mileage, maneuverability, and payload in the segment, increasing profit margins for both inter-city and intra-city applications. India's small and medium-sized businesses and traders can benefit from this last-mile transportation solution as it offers several standout features.
May 2022: A new series of Thermal Management Systems for commercial EVs was launched by Modine. This series improves performance, range, battery life, and safety in commercial EVs. The system keeps the traction motor and power electronics cool under all loads.
May 2022: Eberspaecher launches the H2-ICE exhaust system for hydrogen engines. It demonstrates that the hydrogen engine's exhaust system is functioning correctly, considering the fuel's specific requirements. This exhaust system can monitor nitrogen oxide, small particles, and unburned hydrocarbons.
April 2022: Denso, one of the leading Japanese mobility suppliers, announced a partnership with the Department of Energy (DOE) as part of the Better Plants initiative. As part of this initiative, Denso plans to invest in fuel-efficient thermal systems. This goal aligns with Denso's commitment to reducing energy consumption by 40% by 2035.
| Attribute | Details |
|---|---|
| Forecast Period | 2023 to 2033 |
| Historical Data Available for | 2018 to 2022 |
| Market Analysis | USD billion for Value and MT for Volume |
| Key Regions Covered | North America; Latin America; Europe; The Middle East and Africa; East Asia |
| Key Countries Covered | United States, Canada, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Peru, Germany, United Kingdom, Spain, Italy, France, Russia, Poland, China, India, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, GCC Countries, North Africa, South Africa, and Türkiye |
| Key Segments Covered | Application, Vehicle Type, Propulsion Type, Component, Region |
| Key Companies Profiled | BorgWarner; Dana Incorporated; Grayson Thermal Systems; Hanon Systems; Eberspacher; Valeo SA; Continental AG; Denso Corporation; Robert Bosch GmbH.; Mahle GmbH Denso Corporation |
| Report Coverage | Market Forecast, Company Share Analysis, Competition Intelligence, DROT Analysis, Market Dynamics and Challenges, and Strategic Growth Initiatives |
| Customization & Pricing | Available upon Request |
The CAGR of the market through 2033 is projected to be 4.33%.
The projected market value by 2033 is USD 25.40 billion.
The market is estimated to secure a valuation of USD 16.62 billion in 2023.
The key consumer of the market is the heavy-duty truck industry.
The opportunities in the market are the increasing demand for electric vehicles.
1. Executive Summary | Commercial Vehicle Automotive Thermal System Market 2. Market Overview 3. Market Background 4. Global Market Analysis 2018 to 2022 and Forecast, 2023 to 2033 5. Global Market Analysis 2018 to 2022 and Forecast 2023 to 2033, By Application 5.1. Front & Rear AC 5.2. Engine & Transmission 5.3. Seat 5.4. Battery 5.5. Waste Heat Recovery 5.6. Power Electronics 5.7. Motor 6. Global Market Analysis 2018 to 2022 and Forecast 2023 to 2033, By Vehicle Type 6.1. Light Commercial Vehicle 6.2. Medium Commercial Vehicle 6.3. Heavy Commercial Vehicle 7. Global Market Analysis 2018 to 2022 and Forecast 2023 to 2033, By Propulsion Type 7.1. Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle 7.2. Battery Electric Vehicle 7.3. Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle 7.4. Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle 8. Global Market Analysis 2018 to 2022 and Forecast 2023 to 2033, By Component 8.1. HVAC 8.2. Powertrain Cooling 8.3. Fluid Transport 8.4. Others 9. Global Market Analysis 2018 to 2022 and Forecast 2023 to 2033, By Region 9.1. North America 9.2. Latin America 9.3. Europe 9.4. Asia Pacific 9.5. Middle East & Africa (MEA) 10. North America Market Analysis 2018 to 2022 and Forecast 2023 to 2033, By Country 11. Latin America Market Analysis 2018 to 2022 and Forecast 2023 to 2033, By Country 12. Europe Market Analysis 2018 to 2022 and Forecast 2023 to 2033, By Country 13. Asia Pacific Market Analysis 2018 to 2022 and Forecast 2023 to 2033, By Country 14. MEA Market Analysis 2018 to 2022 and Forecast 2023 to 2033, By Country 15. Key Countries Market Analysis 16. Market Structure Analysis 17. Competition Analysis 17.1. BorgWarner 17.2. Dana Incorporated 17.3. Grayson Thermal Systems 17.4. Hanon Systems 17.5. Eberspacher 17.6. Valeo SA 17.7. Continental AG 17.8. Denso Corporation 17.9. Robert Bosch GmbH 17.10. Mahle GmbH 18. Assumptions & Acronyms Used 19. Research Methodology
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Commercial Vehicle Automotive Thermal System Market
